This is from the Space Weather Prediction Center: This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth. The aurora is an indicator of the current geomagnetic storm conditions and provides situational awareness for a number of technologies
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This is from the Space Weather Prediction Center: This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth. The aurora is an indicator of the current geomagnetic storm conditions and provides situational awareness for a number of technologies
4.2K views11 months ago
FacebookMike Witcher
Here, we see the OVATION model has really amped up due to the fast solar wind currently buffeting our planet. The OVATION model uses the Bz, By, Bt, and solar wind speed to calculate what the electron precipitation should look like on a global scale. This translates to an auroral oval prediction that changes size with changing solar wind conditions. When solar wind becomes elevated, the model reacts strongly. But, even if you see 80, 90, or 100 GW tonight, the best way to know if the aurora is o
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Here, we see the OVATION model has really amped up due to the fast solar wind currently buffeting our planet. The OVATION model uses the Bz, By, Bt, and solar wind speed to calculate what the electron precipitation should look like on a global scale. This translates to an auroral oval prediction that changes size with changing solar wind conditions. When solar wind becomes elevated, the model reacts strongly. But, even if you see 80, 90, or 100 GW tonight, the best way to know if the aurora is o
3.9K views10 months ago
FacebookVincent Ledvina - 'The Aurora Guy'
Here is what happens to the OVATION model when the Bz suddenly flips negative. Obviously, the auroras don't physically just "light up" like this but take some time to get going, but the sudden increase in power does mean there is more energy from the solar wind flowing into Earth's magnetosphere, charging up substorm activity. Let's keep an eye on conditions tonight as the potential for mid-latitude aurora is increasing by the minute. As we all know, things can change fast, but the longer Bz rem
0:02
Here is what happens to the OVATION model when the Bz suddenly flips negative. Obviously, the auroras don't physically just "light up" like this but take some time to get going, but the sudden increase in power does mean there is more energy from the solar wind flowing into Earth's magnetosphere, charging up substorm activity. Let's keep an eye on conditions tonight as the potential for mid-latitude aurora is increasing by the minute. As we all know, things can change fast, but the longer Bz rem
4K viewsSep 14, 2025
FacebookVincent Ledvina - 'The Aurora Guy'
How Scientists Actually Forecast Auroras
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