Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have been rising, but the big moves in gold and oil prices can help gauge just how serious the situation has become — and hint at what’s next for global financial markets.

Crude oil prices spiked by over $10 on the initial news that Israel was bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities and targeting its key military leaders. The price surge should be expected, given that Iran accounts for slightly over 3% of global production and, more importantly, holds 12% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves.

Oil prices retreated on Monday as fears of a wider Middle East conflict eased even as Israel and Iran pounded each other with missiles for a fourth day and threatened