The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model slid deeper into the red on Monday, estimating that Q1 GDP will sink 2.8% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, from the 1.5% decline it estimated on Friday. The nowcast factored in Monday's release of the February ISM,

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model had, up until the Feb. 28 update, been forecasting growth between 2-4% in line with most other models. A graph on the GDPNow page lists the "Blue Chip Consensus" average of the top 10 and bottom 10 forecasts at a slight tick more than 2% U.S. GDP growth for Q1 2025.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model on Friday lowered its forecast for the U.S. economy to a contraction at a 1.5% annual rate. This would be the first quarterly contraction in the economy since the first quarter of 2022. The weaker growth comes as talk of a possible recession in the U.S. economy has picked up.

The US economy is setting up to take a major step back in the first quarter after a pair of reports showed weaker consumer spending and a dramatic widening of the trade deficit at the start of the year,

On February 28, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -1.5%: https://t.co/T7FoDdgYos. #ATLFedResearch Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: https://t.co/NOSwMl7Jms. pic.twitter.com/HhndH6BirX

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is projecting a contraction of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.5 percent in the first quarter, flashing a warning sign for the U.S. economy. The projection is a significant shift for the Atlanta Fed over the last few weeks that comes a little more than a month after

The US economy is already slipping in 2025, and the numbers don’t look good for President Donald Trump, who took the Oval back on January 20. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, GDP is on track to contract by 1.