The planning fallacy is why smart teams miss deadlines they set themselves. Three ways to build forecasts that survive contact with how projects actually go.

With the constant stream of data about COVID-19, it can be hard to make sense of all the numbers. We look at the base rate fallacy, and how some people are making this mistake when assessing risk.

What happens when an entrepreneur realizes their project isn't delivering? It can create a crossroad between perseverance and prudence—the point where passion meets pragmatism. The resulting decision ...

Narrative fallacy is a term introduced by Nassim Taleb [1]. It refers to our difficulty looking at a sequence of facts without connecting them in some way, either to each other or to something else we ...

The fallacy can occasionally be massaged slightly into a much more palatable and seemingly wise saying: "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." "While this sounds pithy, it's not strictly ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Bryce Hoffman writes about leadership, strategy, and decision making. This article is more than 2 years old. The hot-hand fallacy ...

The curiosity explorers at Vsauce2 investigate the prosecutor's fallacy and how flawed mathematical reasoning has led to the wrongful imprisonment of innocent people.

Dividends give equity investors a less risky way to make money. Dividends received from a stock don't count toward the gains or losses that were made by buying that stock. When bond yields rise, ...